ABI Research Pins Apple’s iPhone Market Share at 22% Then Flat for Next Five Years

Research firm ABI predicts that Apple’s smartphone marketshare will peak at 22% this year, then remain stable for the next five years. What does this mean for the long-term health of Apple? Doom and gloom or just a fact of life to manage going forward?
While sounding a little harsh, this quote from the ABI press release makes a clear point—Samsung is the company to beat:

“Barring an unlikely collapse in Samsung’s business, even Apple will be chasing Samsung’s technology, software, and device leadership in 2013 through the foreseeable future,” says senior analyst Michael Morgan. Since 2010 Samsung has grown its smartphone market share from 8% to over 30% in 2012; meanwhile Apple’s market share is expected to peak in 2013 at 22%; remaining flat through 2018. While Samsung’s rise has been on the back of Android, which accounts for 90% of Samsung’s smartphone shipments, the future smartphone OS landscape will likely be heavily influenced by the importance Samsung places on the elements of its OS portfolio of Bada, Tizen, Windows Phone, and Android.
Via: Business Wire

Samsung is really the only company offering Android phones that is doing well across the board. Regardless of whether you think it’s because they flood the market with lots of products or are true innovators, the fact is they are a strong company making solid products.
Don’t count Apple out yet though. Nothing suggests that consumer love for the iPhone is really waning, and iPhone owner loyalty remains the strongest in the industry. Now, if Samsung does something very clever like fork Android to offer a really compelling, insular experience like Apple has done with iOS, then Apple should be worried. What keeps many people with Apple the fact that in addition to the device, people invest a lot of money in apps and media. It would take a lot for me to leave Apple, if for no other reason then cost of replacing my media (books, movies, shows, songs) would be just…wow…
Of course the Apple peak at 22% and stability (stagnation?) until 2018 assumes a lot of factors like Apple not pulling something amazing out of their hat in the next five years. I’m not willing to bet on that. Five years is a very long time and if there is anything Apple does have a track record of lately, it’s pulling rabbits out of hats when we least expect it.
HT: TNW

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